13 Mar

How much does your pot of jollof cost? The SBM Jollof Index

The SBM Jollof index is a composite index that tracks the prices of the main ingredients used to prepare a pot one of Nigeria’s primary delicacies – Jollof rice. This meal was chosen because it is a delicacy in every part of the country. We believe that this index gives a bird eye’s picture of national inflationary trends.

An SBM tally of these prices since the second half of 2016 has showed a quarter by quarter increase in the average national index– from

................   read more

02 Mar

Could Jihadis confront each other in the Sahel?

In what is sure to have significant security and counter-terrorism implications on three continents, al-Mourabitoun, AQIM (AL Qaeda in the Maghreb), Ansar Dine, Macina Liberation Front have announced that they have all joined together to create a new but unified al-Qaeda Trans-Sahelian franchise.

While some, or all of the groups have been operating in concordance at least since late 2015, this public declaration changes the game in some ways, and is significant in that

................   read more

27 Feb

The dollar rain – a look at the FX situation

Last week saw a rare sell-off in the FX parallel market. After recording all time lows the previous week, the naira strengthened to between ₦440 and ₦460 per US dollar following the release of new foreign exchange policy guidelines by the Central Bank of Nigeria, and subsequent market intervention.

The question at this point is which market reflects the true value of the naira. Is it an under-supplied interbank market into which CBN intervenes to repeatedly to cushion

................   read more

21 Feb

La crise au Cameroun – How does it affect Nigeria?

There is a situation in the South-West and North-West regions of Cameroon. These, the only English-speaking regions in the country, account for about 19 percent of the population.

In November 2016, lawyers and teachers took to the streets to protest against perceived marginalisation and the use of French in courts and schools in the English-speaking regions of the country.

The government responded by sending soldiers and military police to suppress the protests. The

................   read more

07 Feb

A critical look at the Southern Kaduna crisis

Dan Azumi moved back home to Sanga in Kaduna in 1994 with his parents. Some of his siblings are married and reside in Fadan Karshi. His late sister, Ande, got married to a Gwandara man and they had five children.

According to Dan, his village was attacked by some Fulani who the villagers claimed had a week prior, sent a letter informing the community they would be carrying out a raid of the community. Men and young adults formed a vigilante group. At about 10pm on the

................   read more

02 Feb

Analysis – What does Morocco’s reentry into the AU mean for Nigeria?

The African Union’s re-admittance of Morocco brings to an end a 33 year old dispute that began in 1984 when members of the then Organisation of African Unity—including Nigeria—voted to admit the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (a partially recognized state that controls a thin strip of area in the Western Sahara) into its fold, despite protests from Morocco which has laid claim to the territory.

Western Sahara, a sparsely populated region in the Sahara Desert

................   read more

24 Jan

Analysis – Much ado about FX

In December 2016, SBM Intelligence was commissioned to do a study on the FX market. The report was delivered, and the client granted permission for an updated and redacted version to be released to the public six weeks after the presentation of the original report.

Being a largely import dependent consuming economy, Nigeria needs foreign exchange in order to function. This has been the story for half a century at least.

The Nigerian FX market has evolved over the years

................   read more

17 Jan

Analysis – A look at Nigeria’s security situation

Last year, Nigeria’s security situation raised a lot of concern. There were surges in cattle rustling, attacks by pastoralists on farming communities, oil theft related violence, and attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta region. The Boko Haram insurgency, after a brief lapse, witnessed an increase in suicide attacks, and attacks on military units. All these, and other adventures, ensured that Nigeria’s security apparatus had their hands full all year.

This

................   read more

16 Dec

The year ahead – What can Nigeria expect in 2017?

2016 proved to be a difficult year for Nigeria which saw the highs and lows of important metrics. Sadly, there were highs where there should have been lows, and lows where there should have been highs. We had highs in inflation, in unemployment and in deaths from famine while the lows were in oil and tax earnings, FDI, in percentage of CAPEX budget spent, and the list goes on. A summary shows that we were spot on in 79% of our projections for the year.

2016 was the

................   read more

06 Dec

The resurgence of Boko Haram

The Boko Haram insurgency entered its seventh year at the beginning of 2016, and a number of important factors have had a substantial effect on developments on this front. In May 2015, Muhammadu Buhari was sworn in as President of Nigeria on an electoral platform that included taking a tougher stance on security issues. Before the elections, a troop surge belatedly approved by the Goodluck Jonathan administration led to marked improvements on the ground in Nigeria’s

................   read more