25 May

The prospects of Biafra 2.0

The FG’s handling of Kanu’s case and its general management of the pro-Biafra movement in the South-East have proven to be strategic blunders which ended up raising the profile of both the man and his cause. Just two years ago, Nnamdi Kanu was unknown to most Nigerians. Even within South East Nigeria, some saw him as an abrasive presence on the airwaves because of his incessant spewing inciting vitriol against Nigeria and other enemies of “Biafra” on the pirate................   read more

23 May

Analysis – Q1 GDP shows path to growth

This morning, the National Bureau of statistics (NBS) released its first quarterly report for 2017. The report revealed that Nigeria is still in a recession with Q1 2017’s growth rate of -0.52%, officially representing the fifth consecutive quarter of contraction for Africa’s largest economy. This was worse than SBM’s projection that Nigeria would be out of recession by the end of Q1. Nominal GDP (values not adjusted for inflation) for the quarter stood at ₦26.028................   read more

08 May

What are the implications of the delayed budget?

On Friday 5th of May, Nigeria’s 2016 budget expired, meaning the country is now without a valid Federal budget.

This is the second year in a row that Nigeria’s budget is being delayed. What is different in this case however is the deafening silence, compared to last year when the issue was at least being discussed. The budget process is not a straightforward one as it usually entails several rounds of back and forth between the Executive and Legislature (both the................   read more

20 Apr

Infographs – EFCC’s recoveries

The data contained in the infographs paint a picture of monies recovered by the EFCC in the War on Corruption since 2015. This data, accurate as of 19 April 2017, was compiled from public sources, mainly the EFCC’s website, and newspaper reports. All data which had a single source was eliminated.

Download details of recoveries (2 pages)

04 Apr

What does Nigeria’s amended electoral act mean?

In one of its more consequential decisions, Nigeria’s Senate on March 30, passed the Electoral Act No. 6 2010 (Amendment) Bill 2017. This follows years of mostly unsuccessful attempts – the current amendments are aimed at instituting more reform in the electoral process and make it freer, fairer and credible.

Last Thursday’s amendments are the most ambitious and wide ranging attempt at further enhancing the provenance of electoral conduct in Nigeria. The new................   read more

30 Mar

The tragedy in Benue – Zaki Biam through the eyes of people there

Fifty. That is the minimum number of people residents say were killed in an attack on the evening of Monday, 20 March, 2017 by gunmen on the yam market in Zaki Biam, Benue State. Samuel Ortom, the governor of Benue State, has said that the number of dead is less than twenty.

At about 3 pm on that day, the gunmen, amongst whom was a woman, stormed the market in a pick-up truck, four Toyota Corolla vehicles and about twelve motorcycles, and began shooting at the hundreds................   read more

13 Mar

How much does your pot of jollof cost? The SBM Jollof Index

The SBM Jollof index is a composite index that tracks the prices of the main ingredients used to prepare a pot one of Nigeria’s primary delicacies – Jollof rice. This meal was chosen because it is a delicacy in every part of the country. We believe that this index gives a bird eye’s picture of national inflationary trends.

An SBM tally of these prices since the second half of 2016 has showed a quarter by quarter increase in the average national index– from................   read more

02 Mar

Could Jihadis confront each other in the Sahel?

In what is sure to have significant security and counter-terrorism implications on three continents, al-Mourabitoun, AQIM (AL Qaeda in the Maghreb), Ansar Dine, Macina Liberation Front have announced that they have all joined together to create a new but unified al-Qaeda Trans-Sahelian franchise.

While some, or all of the groups have been operating in concordance at least since late 2015, this public declaration changes the game in some ways, and is significant in that................   read more

27 Feb

The dollar rain – a look at the FX situation

Last week saw a rare sell-off in the FX parallel market. After recording all time lows the previous week, the naira strengthened to between ₦440 and ₦460 per US dollar following the release of new foreign exchange policy guidelines by the Central Bank of Nigeria, and subsequent market intervention.

The question at this point is which market reflects the true value of the naira. Is it an under-supplied interbank market into which CBN intervenes to repeatedly to cushion................   read more

21 Feb

La crise au Cameroun – How does it affect Nigeria?

There is a situation in the South-West and North-West regions of Cameroon. These, the only English-speaking regions in the country, account for about 19 percent of the population.

In November 2016, lawyers and teachers took to the streets to protest against perceived marginalisation and the use of French in courts and schools in the English-speaking regions of the country.

The government responded by sending soldiers and military police to suppress the protests. The................   read more